I’ve been a Civil War buff for years. I spent childhood summers with grandparents in Corinth, MS, visited the Shiloh battlefield and briefly wore a Confederate cap as a kid. Since I retired to New Mexico I’ve enjoyed reading about that state’s bizarre little Civil War campaign.
I never thought I would live through anything like the American Civil War. But history often repeats, or at least rhymes. The news lately has been dominated by governors and mayors pledging to nullify federal law and shield illegal-immigrant criminals from deportation. The last time states defied the federal government it did not end well. Yet California, Illinois and New York are scrambling to be South Carolina in 1861. A Marist poll last year found that nearly half of Americans think they will see a second civil war.
An antebellum divide has been building for a while. Historian Victor Davis Hanson compares Democratic states to the Old South, hampered by racial and economic ideology that saps their vitality and growth. California has been flirting with secession for years. Sanctuary cities and states are effectively nullifying federal immigration law. We’ve seen an economic shift in recent years as Democratic states have lost residents and businesses to Republican states.
The 2024 election did not heal the divide. The Democratic news media’s tearful reaction to Trump’s election was similar to this Southern news account in 1860: “Let the consequences be what they may — whether the Potomac is crimsoned in human gore, and Pennsylvania Avenue is paved ten fathoms deep with mangled bodies, or whether the last vestige of liberty is swept from the face of the American continent, the South will never submit to such humiliation and degradation as the inauguration of Abraham Lincoln.”
My adopted home state, part of the new Confederacy, is starting its 2026 campaign for governor. In a state beset by rising crime, rampant poverty and failing schools, the leading candidate’s first campaign promise was to oppose everything Trump does.
Instead of firing on Fort Sumter, today’s insurrection uses lawyers. State attorneys general, public employee unions and Democratic nonprofits have filed the expected flurry of lawsuits against everything the Trump administration is doing, from going after government waste to deporting illegal immigrants. Trump & Co. are returning fire by taking state officials to court for shielding criminals from deportation raids. Can we get the opposing teams of lawyers to wear blue and grey suits?

The lawfare campaign may deal a few setbacks to the Trump administration. He probably cannot annex Canada, but it’s likely the courts will decide that the federal government is entitled to deport illegal immigrants, and that the President has authority over the executive branch.
Meanwhile, the new administration will continue laying off bureaucrats and deporting illegal immigrants. Tom Homan, Trump’s border czar, will move faster against illegals than Gen. George McClellan did against Richmond in 1862. Rep. Maxine Waters is no Stonewall Jackson.
In the Civil War, the Confederate states defended slavery with the support of their population. Today’s neo-Confederates are urging their constituents to fight in the streets to defend government waste, a bloated federal workforce, trans athletes in women’s sports, unrestricted immigration and antisemitic campus demonstrations. Unlike the Old South, Americans overwhelmingly oppose all of these fringe positions. Blind hatred of Trump and Elon Musk may not be enough to fuel a popular uprising.
The federal employees singing union protest songs in Washington (on a workday) do not represent the record percentage of the American public that now believes the government is on the right track, and the 50% who approve of Trump’s leadership. Nor do the cries of “constitutional crisis” from the legacy news media the majority of Americans no longer believe.
So if it comes to civil war, we are unlikely to see today’s neo-Confederates standing like a stone wall at Manassas. They are more likely to resemble the Japanese soldiers who held out for years because they didn’t believe World War II was over.
Don’t lay off the mailroom
I’ve been watching the drama over the Trump administration’s layoffs of government employees with mixed feelings. I believe government reform and downsizing is long overdue. As a veteran of multiple corporate downsizings during my career, I’m amused at the manufactured outrage of politicians and the partisan media. But I’m disappointed at the ham-handed way the government reform effort is being implemented and communicated.
Terminating employees is never easy or pleasant. The companies I worked for were pretty good at it but still made missteps.
When I worked at Western Electric’s Hawthorne Works during several rounds of layoffs, my secretary came in one morning and said: “There’s no mail today. They laid off the mailroom.” They WHAT?? Turns out that when management cut jobs in the top wage grades, the union contract gave the displaced workers the right to “bump” workers in a lower wage tier. The mailroom kids, at the bottom of the wage scale, were certain to be replaced by employees bumping down. So a manager jumped the gun and laid off the entire mailroom force before replacements arrived.
During my three years at Western Electric, the Hawthorne Works was reduced from 16,000 employees to 11,000. Illinois Bell, where I spent most of my career, made a series of downsizing moves that significantly reduced its management force. This was part of a dramatic reorganization in a telecommunications industry that had seen little change for nearly a century.
We quickly learned that the best way to help employees cope with uncertainty was to step up communication. Illinois Bell held frequent employee town meetings and coached executives to answer questions candidly. Western Electric equipped all supervisors with confidential information and guidance to talk to their people. Employees were not pleased by the downsizing moves but were never surprised.
We’re seeing the same kind of culture shock in the federal workforce that we saw during AT&T’s divestiture of the Bell telephone companies in the 1980s. Both workforces were accustomed to a high degree of certainty and job security. Federal employees in particular were considered virtually fireproof.
Elon Musk is a genius. He’s also a jerk. That makes him the best person to root out government waste and fraud and the worst person to communicate downsizing moves to employees. Now that Trump’s cabinet members are taking office, Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency needs to hand off implementation of layoffs to agency heads who actually are effective communicators. That is beginning to happen.
What’s even harder on federal employees is that the Democratic party is celebrating them as martyrs of the Great Resistance. Public officials and anti-Trump media – who rarely shed tears over layoffs in the private sector — are giving us heart-wrenching stories about laid-off employees.
They are not getting much sympathy. The majority of Americans voted to downsize the federal government. Nearly half of Americans have little or no confidence in federal civil servants and Musk’s chainsaw rampage has lots of fans. My state’s two senators and an assortment of Democrat groups have beclowned themselves on Facebook with wild claims that laying off one percent of an agency’s headcount is putting Americans in mortal danger. Their posts have drawn derisive comments.
I confess that I am tempted to mock government employees who are shocked to learn that they are no more secure than ordinary working stiffs. The news media do these people no favors when their coverage plays into the popular caricature of entitled bureaucrats.
If the DOGE layoffs are clumsy and disrespectful, the hysterical Democratic reaction is likely to make ordinary Americans resent government employees even more. Do Democrats seriously think that listening to federal employees sing protest songs on a workday will melt the hearts of Trump voters?
As much as I enjoy the Democrats’ unintended comedy, it’s time for Trump to rein in Musk — who is growing increasingly unpopular — and let his cabinet members manage their agencies’ force reductions in a deliberate, compassionate manner. This means communicating more effectively with federal employees and avoiding dumb missteps. Like laying off the mailroom.