It’s the economy, stupid

Donald Trump’s acceptance speech at the GOP convention got lots of criticism for presenting what was described as a “dark” view of the state of the nation. Trump struck a nerve on the economy (among other things) because he contradicted a widely accepted narrative that President Obama got us out of the recession and restored prosperity.

That’s what I might believe if I didn’t read business publications or check my financial statements. Trump presented the “plain facts that have been edited out of your nightly news.” Some of those facts were exaggerated, in typical Trumpian fashion, but most were not.

TV newscasts report the unemployment rate and numbers of jobs created without context. They rarely mention the low workforce participation rate, drop in family income, record numbers of business closures or shockingly low GDP growth. Trump’s speech provoked a reaction because, as he noted, it may have been the first time many viewers heard these facts on prime-time television.

The Potemkin-village media reporting is a symptom of economic divide. National media parrot government economic reports because (in addition to their customary liberal bias and superficial reporting) it’s the reality they see in New York and Washington. The economy has enriched the financial and government operatives with whom the media elite socialize and intermarry.

In addition to media reports, a well-organized social media campaign has been cheerleading for the Obama administration for years. Nearly every day somebody on Facebook posts a canned message with cherry-picked statistics that credit Obama with everything from record job creation to, incredibly, lower gas prices (because of his support for fracking, no doubt). So low-information voters get a steady flow of economic joy from all directions.

The message resonates with the Democratic base because the economy does work for some folks. Government employees, who now outnumber manufacturing workers, have been mostly exempt from the recession. Their job security and benefits are virtually guaranteed, they are not subject to Obamacare and much of the 2009 federal stimulus “created or saved” government jobs.

The perception of economic health also matches the reality of institutions that benefit from government subsidies such as academia, labor unions, film studios and politically favored companies such as Tesla.

Ordinary voters disagree, however. The Gallup Poll indicates that 61% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse. Gallup’s analysis of economic data points to a serious decline for small business. And polls consistently rank the economy as a leading campaign issue.

The disconnect between what people hear and what they experience fuels the claim by both Trump and Bernie Sanders that the system is rigged.

So we can expect the Democratic convention to blow a lot of sunshine. We’ll hear ecstatic reports that the unemployment rate is lower than ever (if you don’t count the underemployed and those who have left the labor force). We’ll hear that the economy added 14.4 million jobs but not that the working-age population grew by 15.8 million. And we’ll hear that the economy is stronger than ever, but not that GDP growth has been revised downward and that the Federal Reserve still believes the economy is too weak to raise interest rates.

All of which proves, they will say, that Trump is telling lies to scare people about the economy. It’s the logical Democratic defense against the potent campaign tactic pioneered by Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.”