I’ve been taking an academic interest in the public reaction to the Obamacare rollout. (It’s academic at this point because my Medicare/Tricare coverage has not changed so far.) I’ve always been curious about how people behave in groups, and my career in public relations made me an armchair social scientist.
One of my favorite assignments was conducting opinion research at Illinois Bell with surveys of customers and employees to evaluate our public relations programs. It was fun because the job gave me license to be the corporate gadfly and they paid me. My role as an opinion research wonk has continued into retirement with surveys for the National Stuttering Association.
One of my projects was tracking customer attitudes toward the breakup of the Bell System in 1984. At the time, this was the biggest corporate reorganization in history: a government initiative to introduce competition by splitting AT&T into separate local and long-distance telephone companies. So I set up a series of periodic surveys to track public opinion before, during and after the reorganization.
Before the divestiture took effect, customers were strongly in favor of the move. Breaking up a big company has compelling populist appeal, and politicians and consumer groups supported the divestiture enthusiastically. My surveys showed that customers were aware the breakup was coming, understood that this would mean changes for their telephone service, and were happy about it. Some respondents thought the government should break up AT&T into even smaller pieces.
After the breakup we saw a dramatic shift in customer opinion when the change began to affect respondents personally. Suddenly, customers told us the breakup was a terrible idea after they experienced what I began calling the Holy Shit Moment. You mean I have to deal with two separate companies for local and long distance service? I’m responsible for my phone equipment now? And you’re adding a charge to my phone bill? Holy shit! Why didn’t someone tell us this was going to happen? The lesson we learned was that public opinion is fickle, and ultimately will be driven by reality rather than rhetoric.
We may be seeing a similar phenomenon in the rollout of the Affordable Care Act. After years of political debate about what may or may not happen, the hypothetical is becoming real and personal. News reports of adverse consequences of Obamacare — insurance cancellations, website problems, etc. — are showing up in opinion polls and making the law even more unpopular. As expected, both political parties are spinning the story furiously.
Ultimately, the success or failure of Obamacare will depend on consumer experience and not messaging. I am a skeptic at this point but may encounter my own Holy Shit Moment when the law’s Medicare cuts take effect. In the meantime, it’s amusing to watch the politicians and pundits flail away in the forlorn hope that what they say will make a difference.
Going solar with mixed feelings
I just signed a contract to install an array of solar panels on my roof that eventually will give me free electricity. But don’t call me an environmentalist.
Solar energy makes sense for me because the sun shines 330 days a year on my flat-roofed house in New Mexico. It makes even more sense when the federal and state governments pick up 40% of the tab.
The irony is that I’m going solar primarily as a hedge against rising utility rates resulting from government environmental regulations. The state has imposed aggressive renewable-energy goals on utility companies, and the federal government is forcing the closing of a coal-fired power plant (because it was creating haze over an uninhabited national park). So rates for electricity are going up with no end in sight. Another irony is that the government is subsidizing those of us who can afford to buy solar systems while ordinary ratepayers foot the bill for environmental progress.
For the record, I agree completely that the climate is changing and that human activity has something to do with it. I am not convinced, however, that closing all the coal plants will make it rain in California or curb hurricanes on the East Coast. And I had to laugh when scientists studying global warming got stuck in the ice in Antarctica.
Even if we accept a “settled science” that occasionally sounds more like Scientology, imposing draconian energy restrictions at home while China merrily builds coal plants does not strike me as a workable solution to a global problem.
The canary in the coal mine (pardon the expression) is Germany, which set aggressive renewable-energy goals and is closing its nuclear power plants as well. So electricity rates are more than twice as high as in the U.S. and they’re adding coal-fired power plants to make up the shortfall.
The good news is that the U.S. is on the right trajectory. Greenhouse gas emissions have dropped dramatically, mostly because fracking technology has made it economical to replace coal with cleaner-burning natural gas. Fuel-efficient cars, energy conservation and the miniscule impact of renewable energy have helped.
This suggests that commonsense, global solutions may be possible through innovation and engineering rather than symbolic environmental gestures. In the short term, the U.S. has the potential to be a world leader in the production of natural gas. Exporting gas, and the technology we’ve developed to produce it, can replace some of the coal that’s being burned in China and other places. And we already have the technology to use natural gas for motor fuel.
In the long term, developing smart power grids and storage technologies eventually may make wind and solar energy practical on a large scale – especially in third-world countries that still use their forests for fuel. We probably can do more with nuclear energy, perhaps by manufacturing small, standardized reactors like the ones submarines use instead of building humongous, custom-designed power plants.
It also makes sense to devote more research to coal because we have so much of the stuff. Coal plant emissions have been reduced significantly in recent decades, and perhaps further progress can make it possible to keep limited use of coal in our energy mix.
If the solar panels on my roof make a teensy contribution to save the planet while giving me free electricity, that’s fine. But it’s hard to be environmentally smug when my solar panels are coming from a factory in China that’s powered by coal.